Manchester City 4-1 Aston Villa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 3 Apr 2024

Manchester City
4-1 HT 2-1
Aston Villa
📅03/04/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Manchester City vs Aston Villa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.28
Draw
22%
5.15
Away
22%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.9
No
47%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.46
2-3 Goals
41%
2.01
4-5 Goals
26%
2.66
6+ Goals
13%
6.46
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.43
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
24.45
X/1
21%
3.48
X/2
8%
22.3
X/X
8%
8.79
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
22.3
2/2
8%
16.8
2/X
6%
24.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 9% vs market 2.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
74%
-18.0pp
22%
Draw
16%
+5.9pp
22%
Away Win
10%
+12.1pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.2pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.8pp
47%
BTTS No
51%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Manchester City v Aston Villa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Manchester City EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Aston Villa EU Bookmakers 12%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +7%
2.25/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/2.05
+31% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +7%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
478 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
42.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.2
22.1 Crosses 12.8
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.5

Manchester City vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Manchester City
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Aston Villa
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.94 xG 0.79
67% Ball Possession 33%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
584 Passes 249
89% Pass Accuracy 77%
37 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
06.12.2023 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-0 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
12.02.2023 Manchester City Manchester City 3-1 HT 3-0 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
03.09.2022 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-1 HT 0-0 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
22.05.2022 Manchester City Manchester City 3-2 HT 0-1 Aston Villa Aston Villa İNP
01.12.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-2 HT 0-2 Manchester City Manchester City İNP
21.04.2021 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1-2 HT 1-2 Manchester City Manchester City İNP

Manchester City 4-1 Aston Villa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Manchester City
4-1
AWAY Aston Villa
3.46 xG 0.77
67% Ball Possession 33%
25 Total Shots 8
11 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 3
647 Passes 291
92% Pass Accuracy 86%
63 Box Touches 16
9 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Manchester City vs Aston Villa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Manchester City ran out comfortable winners over Aston Villa 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Manchester City had 67% of the ball to Aston Villa's 33%, shots finished 25-8, expected goals 3.46 to 0.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Manchester City and 1.17 for Aston Villa.

What was the final score of Manchester City vs Aston Villa?

Manchester City 4-1 Aston Villa in the England - Premier League on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Aston Villa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 56%, draw 22%, Aston Villa 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Manchester City) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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