Fiorentina 1-0 Atalanta — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Cup, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.47
Draw
31%
3.11
Away
32%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.9
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.03
6+ Goals
8%
18.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.8
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
7%
13.05
X/1
18%
5.45
X/2
15%
5.57
X/X
16%
4.15
2/1
7%
31.0
2/2
10%
3.91
2/X
8%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.6pp
31%
Draw
29%
+1.9pp
32%
Away Win
34%
-2.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.8pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta EU Bookmakers 38%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.52/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/0.66
-25% / +74% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
335 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
27.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
20.3 Crosses 14.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fiorentina
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Atalanta
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.50 xG 1.02
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
392 Passes 307
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 19
16 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.09.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 3-2 HT 2-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
17.04.2023 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-1 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
02.10.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 1-0 HT 0-0 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
20.02.2022 Fiorentina Fiorentina 1-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
10.02.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 2-3 HT 1-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTK
11.09.2021 Atalanta Atalanta 1-2 HT 0-1 Fiorentina Fiorentina İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fiorentina
1-0
AWAY Atalanta
1.65 xG 0.42
49% Ball Possession 51%
20 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
287 Passes 292
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 11
20 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fiorentina vs Atalanta
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fiorentina edged past Atalanta 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 31% / 32% — and on the day Fiorentina made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Fiorentina had 49% of the ball to Atalanta's 51%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 1.65 to 0.42 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Fiorentina's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fiorentina had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Fiorentina and 1.17 for Atalanta.

What was the final score of Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

Fiorentina 1-0 Atalanta in the Italy - Cup on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fiorentina win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Fiorentina 37%, draw 31%, Atalanta 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fiorentina), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fiorentina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →