Central Valley Fuego 1-2 El Farolito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.86
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
30%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
20%
X/2
4%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
50%
-8.3pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.2pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+6.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Central Valley Fuego EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY El Farolito EU Bookmakers 27%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +66% / +66%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / +97%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
362 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 327 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
Crosses 28.0
Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Central Valley Fuego
1-2
AWAY El Farolito
1.40 xG 2.06
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
230 Passes 290
68% Pass Accuracy 71%
19 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Central Valley Fuego vs El Farolito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Farolito nicked a narrow win over Central Valley Fuego 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Central Valley Fuego at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Central Valley Fuego had 45% of the ball to El Farolito's 55%, shots finished 13-20, expected goals 1.40 to 2.06.

What was the final score of Central Valley Fuego vs El Farolito?

Central Valley Fuego 1-2 El Farolito in the USA - Open Cup on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Central Valley Fuego vs El Farolito?

Before kick-off our model rated a Central Valley Fuego win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Central Valley Fuego 41%, draw 29%, El Farolito 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Central Valley Fuego) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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