Homburg 0-3 SGV Freiberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.23
Over 2.5
44%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.55
No
53%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-3.5pp
29%
Draw
25%
+3.8pp
28%
Away Win
28%
-0.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
41%
+14.7pp
44%
Over 2.5
59%
-14.7pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.8pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Homburg EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY SGV Freiberg EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +9%
1.82/1.19 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.49
+7% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +6%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
394 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Homburg
1W-0D-2L
AWAY SGV Freiberg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
30.09.2023 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 2-1 HT 1-1 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
10.12.2022 Homburg Homburg 5-1 HT 2-1 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg ALMBÖL
20.08.2022 SGV Freiberg SGV Freiberg 2-0 HT 0-0 Homburg Homburg ALMBÖL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Homburg
0-3
AWAY SGV Freiberg
53% Ball Possession 47%
21 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Homburg vs SGV Freiberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

SGV Freiberg swept aside Homburg 3-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Homburg at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Homburg had 53% of the ball to SGV Freiberg's 47%, shots finished 21-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, SGV Freiberg led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Homburg and 1.67 for SGV Freiberg.

What was the final score of Homburg vs SGV Freiberg?

Homburg 0-3 SGV Freiberg in the Germany - Regional League on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Homburg vs SGV Freiberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Homburg win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Homburg 43%, draw 29%, SGV Freiberg 28%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Homburg), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Homburg) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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