Gwangju 2-3 Incheon United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 3 Apr 2024

Gwangju
2-3 HT 0-1
Incheon United
📅03/04/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
South Kore - K League Classic – 2024

Gwangju vs Incheon United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.53
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
32%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.62
Over 2.5
45%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.9
No
53%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2.58
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.56
6+ Goals
9%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.95
1/2
6%
33.5
1/X
9%
13.85
X/1
16%
5.33
X/2
15%
5.28
X/X
12%
3.98
2/1
10%
33.5
2/2
11%
3.9
2/X
6%
13.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
36%
+5.3pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.9pp
32%
Away Win
36%
-3.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
58%
-2.6pp
45%
Over 2.5
42%
+2.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
49%
-2.1pp
53%
BTTS No
51%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Gwangju v Incheon United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gwangju EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Incheon United EU Bookmakers 39%
+5% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.69/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.47
+3% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / -5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 78%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.9
22.5 Crosses 10.7
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Gwangju vs Incheon United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gwangju
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Incheon United
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.99 xG 0.57
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
453 Passes 326
85% Pass Accuracy 77%
25 Box Touches 14
24 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Gwangju Gwangju 0-2 HT 0-0 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
18.08.2023 Incheon United Incheon United 2-2 HT 0-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
20.05.2023 Incheon United Incheon United 1-1 HT 0-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
18.03.2023 Gwangju Gwangju 5-0 HT 2-0 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK
27.04.2022 Incheon United Incheon United 1-6 HT 0-3 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
04.12.2021 Gwangju Gwangju 1-1 HT 1-1 Incheon United Incheon United GKOK

Gwangju 2-3 Incheon United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gwangju
2-3
AWAY Incheon United
75% Ball Possession 25%
16 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Gwangju vs Incheon United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Incheon United squeezed past Gwangju 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Gwangju at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gwangju had 75% of the ball to Incheon United's 25%, shots finished 16-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Gwangju had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Gwangju and 1.17 for Incheon United.

What was the final score of Gwangju vs Incheon United?

Gwangju 2-3 Incheon United in the South Kore - K League Classic on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gwangju vs Incheon United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gwangju win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Gwangju 41%, draw 27%, Incheon United 32%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Gwangju) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
GKOK More South Kore - K League Classic
3 Apr 2024
13:30 FC Seoul vs Gimcheon Sangmu Analysis →
13:30 Gangwon vs Daegu Analysis →
13:30 Jeju United vs Jeonbuk Motors Analysis →