Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Cup, 3 Apr 2024

Vitoria Guimaraes
0-1 HT 0-0
Porto
📅03/04/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Portugal - Cup – 2023/2024

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.87
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.75
Over 2.5
51%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.93
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
24%
3.97
6+ Goals
9%
18.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.92
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
25.5
1/X
8%
15.8
X/1
10%
8.5
X/2
15%
3.93
X/X
10%
4.66
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
23%
2.38
2/X
7%
15.1
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 10% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
22%
+4.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.5pp
48%
Away Win
53%
-5.0pp
49%
Under 2.5
53%
-4.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
47%
+4.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.6pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Vitoria Guimaraes v Porto — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 57%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
0.12/1.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.53/0.34
-90% / +68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +150%
45% Ball Possession 55%
9 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 375 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.5
– Crosses 14.3
– Yellow Cards 2.9

Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Porto
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.00 xG 1.94
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
205 Passes 461
69% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
11.11.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 1-2 HT 1-1 Porto Porto POR
27.05.2023 Porto Porto 3-0 HT 3-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
21.01.2023 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
10.04.2022 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 HT 0-1 Porto Porto POR
28.11.2021 Porto Porto 2-1 HT 1-1 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR
22.04.2021 Porto Porto 1-0 HT 0-0 Vitoria Guimaraes Vitoria Guimaraes POR

Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 Porto — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vitoria Guimaraes
0-1
AWAY Porto
0.20 xG 0.99
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 10
202 Passes 322
74% Pass Accuracy 78%
9 Box Touches 26
9 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Porto squeezed past Vitoria Guimaraes 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Porto as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Vitoria Guimaraes had 40% of the ball to Porto's 60%, shots finished 7-15, expected goals 0.20 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Porto led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Vitoria Guimaraes and 1.67 for Porto.

What was the final score of Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto?

Vitoria Guimaraes 0-1 Porto in the Portugal - Cup on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vitoria Guimaraes vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Vitoria Guimaraes 27%, draw 25%, Porto 48%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Porto) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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