Hoffenheim 1-1 RB Leipzig — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 3 May 2024

Hoffenheim
1-1 HT 0-1
RB Leipzig
📅03/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.13
Draw
27%
4.34
Away
50%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
3.46
Over 2.5
55%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.39
No
47%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
8.88
2-3 Goals
36%
2.42
4-5 Goals
26%
2.35
6+ Goals
15%
3.82
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.97
1/2
9%
16.95
1/X
6%
15.25
X/1
7%
11.8
X/2 EV+ ✗
25%
4.33
X/X
14%
8.31
2/1
4%
34.5
2/2
16%
1.84
2/X
7%
15.25
Value flag · X/2 at 4.33 — our 25% vs market 18.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
20%
+3.1pp
27%
Draw
19%
+7.9pp
50%
Away Win
61%
-11.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
25%
+19.3pp
55%
Over 2.5
75%
-19.3pp
53%
BTTS Yes
68%
-14.9pp
47%
BTTS No
32%
+14.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hoffenheim v RB Leipzig — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 66%
+2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +0%
1.31/2.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.92/1.12
-33% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +8%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
273 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 438 · 83%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.0
18.0 Crosses 16.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7

Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
1W-0D-5L
AWAY RB Leipzig
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.97 xG 1.54
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
311 Passes 488
78% Pass Accuracy 85%
18 Box Touches 28
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.12.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
29.04.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-0 HT 1-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
01.02.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-1 HT 2-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AFK
05.11.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-3 HT 0-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
10.04.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3-0 HT 3-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
20.11.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 2-0 HT 1-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1

Hoffenheim 1-1 RB Leipzig — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
1-1
AWAY RB Leipzig
1.61 xG 0.81
55% Ball Possession 45%
20 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
521 Passes 406
89% Pass Accuracy 86%
30 Box Touches 14
29 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim and RB Leipzig couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was RB Leipzig at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 55% of the ball to RB Leipzig's 45%, shots finished 20-8, expected goals 1.61 to 0.81.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, RB Leipzig led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Hoffenheim and 2.17 for RB Leipzig.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig?

Hoffenheim 1-1 RB Leipzig in the Germany - Bundesliga on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig?

Before kick-off our model rated an RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 23%, draw 27%, RB Leipzig 50%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (RB Leipzig), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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