Almere City 1-1 Heerenveen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 3 May 2024

Almere City
1-1 HT 0-0
Heerenveen
📅03/05/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2023/2024

Almere City vs Heerenveen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
40%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.8
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.22
6+ Goals
11%
11.1
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
4.04
1/2
9%
26.0
1/X
7%
12.4
X/1
10%
6.19
X/2
11%
5.39
X/X
10%
4.75
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
29.0
2/2
19%
3.32
2/X
8%
12.25
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 14% vs market 1.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
34%
+2.0pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.7pp
40%
Away Win
39%
+0.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.2pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.6pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Almere City v Heerenveen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almere City EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Heerenveen EU Bookmakers 43%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +7%
1.16/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.45
+16% / +54% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +1%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
294 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 77%
23.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
20.2 Crosses 18.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.2

Almere City vs Heerenveen Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almere City
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Heerenveen
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.89 xG 3.38
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
272 Passes 322
71% Pass Accuracy 75%
20 Box Touches 27
24 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
01.12.2023 Heerenveen Heerenveen 3-0 HT 2-0 Almere City Almere City HOL
21.07.2015 Heerenveen Heerenveen 1-1 HT 0-1 Almere City Almere City HAZ

Almere City 1-1 Heerenveen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almere City
1-1
AWAY Heerenveen
1.79 xG 1.94
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
250 Passes 340
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
31 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Almere City vs Heerenveen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Almere City and Heerenveen couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (36% / 24% / 40%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Almere City had 44% of the ball to Heerenveen's 56%, shots finished 13-18, expected goals 1.79 to 1.94.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Heerenveen led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Almere City and 2.00 for Heerenveen.

What was the final score of Almere City vs Heerenveen?

Almere City 1-1 Heerenveen in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almere City vs Heerenveen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Heerenveen win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Almere City 36%, draw 24%, Heerenveen 40%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Heerenveen), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Heerenveen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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