Avellino 0-1 Padova Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
2.63
2-3 Goals
41%
1.73
4-5 Goals
19%
4.09
6+ Goals
8%
20.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.63 — our 32% vs market 30.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
11%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-3.4pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.1pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+3.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.4pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avellino EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 32%
-10% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +12%
0.77/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/0.88
-37% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +32%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
314 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avellino
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Padova Calcio
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
59% Ball Possession 41%
5 Total Shots 5
1 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
5 Yellow Cards 5
09.06.2021 Avellino Avellino 0-1 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
06.06.2021 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-1 HT 1-0 Avellino Avellino İTC
30.05.2014 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-1 HT 2-1 Avellino Avellino nan
29.12.2013 Avellino Avellino 2-1 HT 1-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio nan
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avellino
0-1
AWAY Padova Calcio
62% Ball Possession 38%
10 Total Shots 4
2 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Avellino vs Padova Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio nicked a narrow win over Avellino 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Padova Calcio made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Avellino had 62% of the ball to Padova Calcio's 38%, shots finished 10-4.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Avellino and 1.25 for Padova Calcio.

What was the final score of Avellino vs Padova Calcio?

Avellino 0-1 Padova Calcio in the Italy - Serie C on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avellino vs Padova Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avellino win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Avellino 39%, draw 29%, Padova Calcio 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Avellino) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Avellino) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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