Lüksemburg 0-1 İtalya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies - Türk Takımları, 3 Jun 2026

📅03/06/2026 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
5.4
Draw
20%
4.19
Away
52%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.85
No
47%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.8
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
21%
3.02
6+ Goals
9%
9.79
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
10.55
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
21.4
1/X
9%
19.0
X/1
8%
12.75
X/2
18%
3.89
X/X
7%
6.2
2/1
7%
34.0
2/2
24%
1.77
2/X
4%
16.65
Value flag · 1/2 at 21.4 — our 10% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
15%
+12.4pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.5pp
52%
Away Win
64%
-12.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
50%
+2.5pp
47%
BTTS No
50%
-2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lüksemburg EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY İtalya EU Bookmakers 69%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+93% / -68% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
40% Ball Possession 60%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
226 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 434 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lüksemburg
0W-1D-0L
AWAY İtalya
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
7 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 8
04.06.2014 İtalya İtalya 1-1 HT 1-0 Lüksemburg Lüksemburg HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lüksemburg
0-1
AWAY İtalya
0.38 xG 2.10
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
346 Passes 368
85% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 27
15 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lüksemburg vs İtalya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İtalya nicked a narrow win over Lüksemburg 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had İtalya as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Lüksemburg had 48% of the ball to İtalya's 52%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.38 to 2.10 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold İtalya's control.

What was the final score of Lüksemburg vs İtalya?

Lüksemburg 0-1 İtalya in the Friendlies - Türk Takımları on 03/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lüksemburg vs İtalya?

Before kick-off our model rated an İtalya win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Lüksemburg 28%, draw 20%, İtalya 52%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İtalya) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (İtalya) ✗ BTTS Yes
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