Lüksemburg vs İtalya Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Lüksemburg v İtalya — Team-Based Signals
Lüksemburg vs İtalya Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
1-1
HT 1-0
Lüksemburg
HAZ
Lüksemburg 0-1 İtalya — Actual Match Statistics
İtalya nicked a narrow win over Lüksemburg 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had İtalya as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.
On the day, Lüksemburg had 48% of the ball to İtalya's 52%, shots finished 9-15, expected goals 0.38 to 2.10 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold İtalya's control.
What was the final score of Lüksemburg vs İtalya?
Lüksemburg 0-1 İtalya in the Friendlies - Türk Takımları on 03/06/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Lüksemburg vs İtalya?
Before kick-off our model rated an İtalya win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Lüksemburg 28%, draw 20%, İtalya 52%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (İtalya) — while BTTS Yes went the other way.