Velez Sarsfield 3-0 Defensa y Justicia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Argentina - Premier League, 3 Aug 2024

Velez Sarsfield
3-0 HT 1-0
Defensa y Justicia
📅03/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Argentina - Premier League – 2024

Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.96
No
59%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.72
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.3
6+ Goals
8%
21.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.72 — our 36% vs market 30.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.51
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
14.4
X/1
20%
4.06
X/2
8%
8.24
X/X
14%
4.23
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
11%
6.77
2/X
6%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-1.7pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+1.7pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.4pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.0pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Velez Sarsfield v Defensa y Justicia — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Velez Sarsfield EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Defensa y Justicia EU Bookmakers 26%
+6% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
1.37/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.42
+16% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
334 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 300 · 75%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
20.6 Crosses 15.9
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5

Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Velez Sarsfield
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Defensa y Justicia
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.47 xG 1.21
58% Ball Possession 42%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
381 Passes 239
80% Pass Accuracy 70%
16 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
31.03.2023 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 0-0 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
25.06.2022 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 1-1 HT 0-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
28.07.2021 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 0-0 HT 0-0 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
28.03.2021 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 1-1 HT 1-0 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ
29.09.2019 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 0-1 HT 0-0 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia ARJ
06.11.2018 Defensa y Justicia Defensa y Justicia 3-2 HT 2-1 Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield ARJ

Velez Sarsfield 3-0 Defensa y Justicia — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Velez Sarsfield
3-0
AWAY Defensa y Justicia
1.89 xG 0.46
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 5
324 Passes 243
78% Pass Accuracy 69%
36 Box Touches 9
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Velez Sarsfield swept aside Defensa y Justicia 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Velez Sarsfield as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (59%) landed while under 2.5 goals (60%) missed.

On the day, Velez Sarsfield had 54% of the ball to Defensa y Justicia's 46%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.89 to 0.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Defensa y Justicia led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Velez Sarsfield and 1.00 for Defensa y Justicia.

What was the final score of Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia?

Velez Sarsfield 3-0 Defensa y Justicia in the Argentina - Premier League on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Velez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Velez Sarsfield win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Velez Sarsfield 48%, draw 27%, Defensa y Justicia 25%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Velez Sarsfield), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Velez Sarsfield) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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