Nacional 2-1 Progreso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 3 Aug 2026

Nacional
2-1 HT 1-0
Progreso
📅03/08/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Uruguay - Premier League – 2026

Nacional vs Progreso Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.43
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
31%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.86
Over 2.5
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.09
No
49%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
65%
-21.1pp
25%
Draw
20%
+4.6pp
31%
Away Win
14%
+16.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.9pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.9pp
49%
BTTS No
56%
-6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nacional v Progreso — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nacional EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Progreso EU Bookmakers 17%
-80% / -80% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.72
-44% / -58% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
371 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 76%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.2

Nacional vs Progreso Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nacional
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Progreso
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
The Meetings
20.10.2023 Nacional Nacional 1-2 HT 1-0 Progreso Progreso URUK

Nacional 2-1 Progreso — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nacional
2-1
AWAY Progreso
13 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 1
10 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nacional vs Progreso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nacional nicked a narrow win over Progreso 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Nacional as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, shots finished 13-5.

What was the final score of Nacional vs Progreso?

Nacional 2-1 Progreso in the Uruguay - Premier League on 03/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nacional vs Progreso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Nacional 44%, draw 25%, Progreso 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nacional) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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