Kazincbarcika 3-1 MTK Budapest — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB I, 3 Oct 2025

📅03/10/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.32
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
44%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.52
2-3 Goals
42%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.12
6+ Goals
11%
10.75
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
8%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
16%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
26%
+6.5pp
23%
Draw
25%
-2.0pp
44%
Away Win
49%
-4.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.6pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.3pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Kazincbarcika EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY MTK Budapest EU Bookmakers 53%
+12% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.42/1.40 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.88
+17% / +48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / -2%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
286 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 333 · 82%
11.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 34.2
4.0 Crosses 21.9
5.0 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Kazincbarcika
0W-1D-1L
AWAY MTK Budapest
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.50
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 10
3 Corners 10
3 Yellow Cards 1
27.11.2022 Kazincbarcika Kazincbarcika 3-3 HT 2-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MAC2
10.02.2021 Kazincbarcika Kazincbarcika 1-4 HT 0-1 MTK Budapest MTK Budapest MACK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Kazincbarcika
3-1
AWAY MTK Budapest
2.13 xG 1.80
33% Ball Possession 67%
12 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
214 Passes 500
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
17 Box Touches 25
5 Crosses 32
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Kazincbarcika vs MTK Budapest
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kazincbarcika beat MTK Budapest 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

Our pre-match lean was MTK Budapest at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Kazincbarcika had 33% of the ball to MTK Budapest's 67%, shots finished 12-17, expected goals 2.13 to 1.80.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, MTK Budapest led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Kazincbarcika and 3.50 for MTK Budapest.

What was the final score of Kazincbarcika vs MTK Budapest?

Kazincbarcika 3-1 MTK Budapest in the Hungary - NB I on 03/10/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Kazincbarcika vs MTK Budapest?

Before kick-off our model rated an MTK Budapest win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Kazincbarcika 33%, draw 23%, MTK Budapest 44%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (MTK Budapest) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (MTK Budapest) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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