Borussia Dortmund II 3-1 Verl — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 3 Nov 2024

📅03/11/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.67
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
41%
2.23
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.5
No
49%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.55
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.89
6+ Goals
11%
8.29
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.55 — our 26% vs market 17.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
4.08
1/2
9%
23.6
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
11%
6.47
X/2
9%
5.23
X/X
9%
5.4
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
23%
3.04
2/X
9%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
34%
+0.2pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
41%
Away Win
41%
+0.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.0pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
62%
-11.3pp
49%
BTTS No
38%
+11.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Borussia Dortmund II EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Verl EU Bookmakers 45%
+0% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.41/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.67/1.67
+0% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -25%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
301 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 405 · 85%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
16.6 Crosses 15.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Verl
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.02.2024 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 5-2 HT 3-1 Verl Verl AL3
23.09.2023 Verl Verl 2-3 HT 1-1 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
24.04.2023 Verl Verl 2-1 HT 2-0 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
29.10.2022 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-0 HT 0-0 Verl Verl AL3
06.05.2022 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II 1-2 HT 1-0 Verl Verl AL3
04.12.2021 Verl Verl 0-3 HT 0-3 Borussia Dortmund II Borussia Dortmund II AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Borussia Dortmund II
3-1
AWAY Verl
28% Ball Possession 72%
12 Total Shots 27
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 10
179 Passes 623
66% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Borussia Dortmund II vs Verl
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Borussia Dortmund II got the better of Verl 3-1. Half-time: 3-0.

Our pre-match lean was Verl at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Borussia Dortmund II had 28% of the ball to Verl's 72%, shots finished 12-27.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Borussia Dortmund II had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Borussia Dortmund II and 1.33 for Verl.

What was the final score of Borussia Dortmund II vs Verl?

Borussia Dortmund II 3-1 Verl in the Germany - 3rd Division on 03/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Borussia Dortmund II vs Verl?

Before kick-off our model rated an Verl win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Borussia Dortmund II 34%, draw 25%, Verl 41%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Verl) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Verl) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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