Adelaide United 2-2 Wellington Phoenix — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 4 Jan 2024

Adelaide United
2-2 HT 1-1
Wellington Phoenix
📅04/01/2024 · 🕒11:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.86
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
37%
2.63
Over 2.5
63%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.43
No
42%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
5.91
2-3 Goals
36%
2.04
4-5 Goals
28%
2.53
6+ Goals
17%
5.64
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.38
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
8%
12.8
X/1
10%
4.77
X/2
11%
8.24
X/X
5%
6.17
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
20.05
2/2
13%
5.05
2/X
9%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.05 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
50%
-2.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.0pp
37%
Under 2.5
34%
+3.0pp
63%
Over 2.5
66%
-3.0pp
58%
BTTS Yes
66%
-7.6pp
42%
BTTS No
34%
+7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Adelaide United v Wellington Phoenix — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Adelaide United EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Wellington Phoenix EU Bookmakers 30%
+9% / +16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +9%
2.34/1.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.96
+13% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -12%
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
389 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 80%
33.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
24.3 Crosses 16.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Adelaide United
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.04 xG 1.61
52% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
385 Passes 375
82% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 24
24 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
05.05.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 2-0 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
17.03.2023 Adelaide United Adelaide United 5-1 HT 2-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS
17.12.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 3-1 HT 2-1 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
09.10.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-1 HT 0-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
12.02.2022 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix 1-1 HT 1-0 Adelaide United Adelaide United AVUS
01.01.2022 Adelaide United Adelaide United 4-0 HT 1-0 Wellington Phoenix Wellington Phoenix AVUS

Adelaide United 2-2 Wellington Phoenix — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Adelaide United
2-2
AWAY Wellington Phoenix
3.30 xG 1.36
55% Ball Possession 45%
28 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
18 Corners 1
414 Passes 352
87% Pass Accuracy 84%
64 Box Touches 34
45 Crosses 11
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Adelaide United and Wellington Phoenix shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Adelaide United at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (63%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Adelaide United had 55% of the ball to Wellington Phoenix's 45%, shots finished 28-8, expected goals 3.30 to 1.36.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Adelaide United had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Adelaide United and 1.00 for Wellington Phoenix.

What was the final score of Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix?

Adelaide United 2-2 Wellington Phoenix in the Australia - A-League on 04/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Adelaide United vs Wellington Phoenix?

Before kick-off our model rated a Adelaide United win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Adelaide United 48%, draw 23%, Wellington Phoenix 30%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Adelaide United) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Adelaide United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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