Middlesbrough 1-1 Sunderland — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 4 Feb 2024

Middlesbrough
1-1 HT 0-0
Sunderland
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Middlesbrough vs Sunderland Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.05
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
32%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.86
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
4.02
6+ Goals
8%
18.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 31% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.91
1/2
10%
34.0
1/X
10%
13.55
X/1
14%
4.48
X/2
13%
6.79
X/X
9%
4.27
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
9%
5.23
2/X
10%
14.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
45%
-5.9pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.7pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.6pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Middlesbrough v Sunderland — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Sunderland EU Bookmakers 31%
-5% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +7%
1.49/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.13/1.48
-11% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / +10%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
297 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 76%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.3
19.5 Crosses 13.2
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Middlesbrough vs Sunderland Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Sunderland
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.64 xG 1.45
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
278 Passes 367
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Sunderland Sunderland 0-4 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
22.01.2023 Sunderland Sunderland 2-0 HT 0-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
05.09.2022 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-0 HT 1-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL
24.02.2018 Sunderland Sunderland 3-3 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
06.01.2018 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-0 HT 2-0 Sunderland Sunderland FAK
05.11.2017 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-0 HT 1-0 Sunderland Sunderland İNCL

Middlesbrough 1-1 Sunderland — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
1-1
AWAY Sunderland
1.64 xG 1.05
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 6
440 Passes 371
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Sunderland
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough and Sunderland shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 33%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 53% of the ball to Sunderland's 47%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.64 to 1.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Middlesbrough had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Middlesbrough and 0.83 for Sunderland.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Sunderland?

Middlesbrough 1-1 Sunderland in the England - Championship on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Sunderland?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 39%, draw 29%, Sunderland 33%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Middlesbrough), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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