04/02/2024
·
16:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
0-1
2nd Score
1-0
Alba Calcio vs FC Vado Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
56%
Over
44%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
No Pick
59%
Total Goals
0-1
27%
2-3
40%
4-5
27%
6+
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
9%
2/1
4%
2/2
18%
2/X
8%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
BTTS No — 59% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
35%
Home Win
32%
25%
Draw
25%
40%
Away Win
43%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alba Calcio v FC Vado — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Alba Calcio
The Market 36%
Head to Head
AWAY
FC Vado
The Market 46%
-49% /
-49%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
-21%
/
-77%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
46%
Ball Possession
54%
11
Total Shots
10
4
Shots on Target
4
3
Corners
4
287 · 76%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
308 · 76%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Alba Calcio vs FC Vado
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Alba Calcio nicked a narrow win over FC Vado 1-0.
Our pre-match split (35% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Alba Calcio found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.
What was the final score of Alba Calcio vs FC Vado?
Alba Calcio 1-0 FC Vado in the Italy - Serie D on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alba Calcio vs FC Vado?
Before kick-off our model rated an FC Vado win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Alba Calcio 35%, draw 25%, FC Vado 40%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (FC Vado) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (FC Vado)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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İTD
More Italy - Serie D
4 Feb 2024