RB Leipzig 2-0 Union Berlin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 4 Feb 2024

RB Leipzig
2-0 HT 1-0
Union Berlin
📅04/02/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.62
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.29
Over 2.5
60%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.68
2-3 Goals
39%
1.91
4-5 Goals
28%
2.82
6+ Goals
14%
7.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
41%
1.6
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
6%
19.7
X/1
11%
3.54
X/2
6%
15.9
X/X
10%
7.24
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.25
2/2
8%
12.1
2/X
5%
20.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.25 — our 9% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
69%
-7.2pp
20%
Draw
19%
+1.9pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+5.2pp
40%
Under 2.5
40%
+0.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
60%
-0.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

RB Leipzig v Union Berlin — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME RB Leipzig EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Union Berlin EU Bookmakers 16%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +10%
2.24/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/2.03
-6% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +14% / -2%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
494 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 278 · 74%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
17.6 Crosses 14.6
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME RB Leipzig
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Union Berlin
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.02 xG 1.31
65% Ball Possession 35%
11 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
524 Passes 229
84% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.09.2023 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0-3 HT 0-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
11.02.2023 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-2 HT 1-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
20.08.2022 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 2-0 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1
23.04.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1-2 HT 0-0 Union Berlin Union Berlin AL1
20.04.2022 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2-1 HT 0-1 Union Berlin Union Berlin AFK
03.12.2021 Union Berlin Union Berlin 2-1 HT 1-1 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig AL1

RB Leipzig 2-0 Union Berlin — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME RB Leipzig
2-0
AWAY Union Berlin
1.15 xG 0.53
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
606 Passes 269
88% Pass Accuracy 77%
35 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

RB Leipzig beat Union Berlin 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had RB Leipzig as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, RB Leipzig had 66% of the ball to Union Berlin's 34%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 1.15 to 0.53.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Union Berlin led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.50 for Union Berlin.

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?

RB Leipzig 2-0 Union Berlin in the Germany - Bundesliga on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?

Before kick-off our model rated a RB Leipzig win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split RB Leipzig 61%, draw 20%, Union Berlin 18%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (RB Leipzig), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (RB Leipzig) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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