Novo Hamburgo 1-0 Sao Luiz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Gaucho 1, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
4.48
Draw
30%
3.45
Away
37%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
61%
Over
39%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2-3
45%
4-5
17%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
17%
X/X
17%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
33%
Home Win
20%
+13.5pp
30%
Draw
26%
+3.9pp
37%
Away Win
54%
-17.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novo Hamburgo The Market 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Sao Luiz The Market 57%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
0.89/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.00
+11% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / +13%
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
277 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.2 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novo Hamburgo
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Sao Luiz
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.02.2023 Sao Luiz Sao Luiz 1-0 HT 1-0 Novo Hamburgo Novo Hamburgo BRG1
07.02.2022 Novo Hamburgo Novo Hamburgo 0-0 HT 0-0 Sao Luiz Sao Luiz BRG1
15.03.2021 Sao Luiz Sao Luiz 2-0 HT 0-0 Novo Hamburgo Novo Hamburgo BRG1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novo Hamburgo
1-0
AWAY Sao Luiz
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
POST-MATCH Novo Hamburgo vs Sao Luiz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novo Hamburgo edged past Sao Luiz 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (33% / 30% / 37%) promised a tight game; Novo Hamburgo found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Novo Hamburgo had 54% of the ball to Sao Luiz's 46%, shots finished 13-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Sao Luiz led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Novo Hamburgo and 1.00 for Sao Luiz.

What was the final score of Novo Hamburgo vs Sao Luiz?

Novo Hamburgo 1-0 Sao Luiz in the Brazil - Gaucho 1 on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novo Hamburgo vs Sao Luiz?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sao Luiz win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Novo Hamburgo 33%, draw 30%, Sao Luiz 37%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sao Luiz) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sao Luiz) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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