04/02/2024
·
21:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
2-1
2nd Score
1-2
Anapolis vs Aparecidense Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under
34%
Over Pick
66%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Total Goals
0-1
23%
2-3
37%
4-5
23%
6+
17%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
10%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
5%
X/X
12%
2/1
15%
2/2
24%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 66% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
38%
Home Win
46%
24%
Draw
24%
38%
Away Win
30%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Anapolis v Aparecidense — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Anapolis
The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY
Aparecidense
The Market 33%
+2% /
+2%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-20% /
-20%
1.00/0.61
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.51/1.00
-36%
/
+62%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-44%
/
+17%
53%
Ball Possession
47%
14
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Target
4
6
Corners
5
333 · 78%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
321 · 79%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
1.0
Yellow Cards
4.0
Anapolis vs Aparecidense Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Anapolis
0W-1D-0L
AWAY
Aparecidense
1.00
Avg Goals (FT)
1.00
The Meetings
POST-MATCH
Anapolis vs Aparecidense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Anapolis swept aside Aparecidense 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.
We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Anapolis made the difference. On goals, over 2.5 goals (66%) landed while both teams to score (60%) missed.
What was the final score of Anapolis vs Aparecidense?
Anapolis 4-0 Aparecidense in the Brazil - Goiano 1 on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Anapolis vs Aparecidense?
Before kick-off our model rated a Anapolis win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Anapolis 38%, draw 24%, Aparecidense 38%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38)
✓ Over 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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BRGO1
More Brazil - Goiano 1
4 Feb 2024