04/02/2024
·
01:15
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-0
Marilia vs USAC Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
58%
Over
42%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
No
53%
Total Goals
0-1
34%
2-3
32%
4-5
27%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
4%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 58% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
51%
Home Win
57%
27%
Draw
25%
21%
Away Win
18%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Marilia v USAC — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Marilia
The Market 61%
Head to Head
AWAY
USAC
The Market 21%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
53%
Ball Possession
47%
13
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Target
3
5
Corners
5
461 · 83%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
315 · 82%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Marilia vs USAC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Marilia got the better of USAC 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Marilia as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.
What was the final score of Marilia vs USAC?
Marilia 2-0 USAC in the Brazil - Paulista A3 on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Marilia vs USAC?
Before kick-off our model rated a Marilia win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Marilia 51%, draw 27%, USAC 21%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marilia), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.
✓ Match Result (Marilia)
✓ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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