04/02/2024
·
19:00
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-1
2nd Score
1-0
Fortune vs Marimoo Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
57%
Over
43%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
No
45%
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
56%
4-5
13%
6+
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
6%
1/X
11%
X/1
11%
X/2
5%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 57% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Selection
The Market
50%
Home Win
54%
33%
Draw
23%
17%
Away Win
23%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Fortune v Marimoo — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Fortune
The Market 58%
Head to Head
AWAY
Marimoo
The Market 26%
+0% /
+0%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
+0% /
+0%
–/–
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
–/–
–
/
–
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
–
/
–
51%
Ball Possession
49%
13
Total Shots
8
6
Shots on Target
3
4
Corners
4
287 · 72%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
393 · 78%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Fortune vs Marimoo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Fortune got the better of Marimoo 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fortune as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while both teams to score (55%) missed.
What was the final score of Fortune vs Marimoo?
Fortune 2-0 Marimoo in the Gambiya - GFA League on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Fortune vs Marimoo?
Before kick-off our model rated a Fortune win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Fortune 50%, draw 33%, Marimoo 17%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortune), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Fortune)
✓ Under 2.5
✗ BTTS Yes
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