Ajka 3-1 Budafoki MTE — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Hungary - NB II, 4 Feb 2024

📅04/02/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.51
Over 2.5
40%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.16
No
52%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
14%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
47%
-2.0pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.0pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+4.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-2.0pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+2.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
42%
+6.3pp
52%
BTTS No
58%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajka EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Budafoki MTE EU Bookmakers 28%
+6% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -2%
1.69/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.47
+26% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -9%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
346 · 69% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 193 · 60%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajka
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Budafoki MTE
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 0
06.08.2023 Budafoki MTE Budafoki MTE 2-0 HT 2-0 Ajka Ajka MAC2
11.12.2022 Budafoki MTE Budafoki MTE 1-2 HT 0-1 Ajka Ajka MAC2
31.07.2022 Ajka Ajka 3-0 HT 3-0 Budafoki MTE Budafoki MTE MAC2
08.05.2022 Ajka Ajka 2-0 HT 1-0 Budafoki MTE Budafoki MTE MAC2
24.11.2021 Budafoki MTE Budafoki MTE 1-1 HT 0-0 Ajka Ajka MAC2
POST-MATCH Ajka vs Budafoki MTE
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajka got the better of Budafoki MTE 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ajka as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Ajka had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Ajka and 0.80 for Budafoki MTE.

What was the final score of Ajka vs Budafoki MTE?

Ajka 3-1 Budafoki MTE in the Hungary - NB II on 04/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajka vs Budafoki MTE?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajka win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Ajka 45%, draw 26%, Budafoki MTE 28%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajka) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajka) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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