Inter 2-1 Genoa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 4 Mar 2024

Inter
2-1 HT 2-0
Genoa
📅04/03/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Italy - Serie A – 2023/2024

Inter vs Genoa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.3
Draw
24%
4.81
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.03
Over 2.5
48%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.19
No
61%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.82
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
23%
3.2
6+ Goals
9%
10.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.82 — our 27% vs market 21.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.53
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
24.0
X/1
14%
3.28
X/2
6%
20.0
X/X
12%
7.0
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
6%
17.15
2/X
7%
24.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
72%
-13.3pp
24%
Draw
17%
+6.6pp
17%
Away Win
10%
+6.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
45%
+6.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
55%
-6.5pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-2.5pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Inter v Genoa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Inter EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Genoa EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +3%
2.26/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.80
+20% / +20% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +7%
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
418 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 279 · 75%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
24.8 Crosses 13.2
1.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Inter vs Genoa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Inter
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Genoa
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
1.93 xG 0.50
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
481 Passes 318
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
35 Box Touches 12
24 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.12.2023 Genoa Genoa 1-1 HT 1-1 Inter Inter İTA
25.02.2022 Genoa Genoa 0-0 HT 0-0 Inter Inter İTA
21.08.2021 Inter Inter 4-0 HT 2-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
28.02.2021 Inter Inter 3-0 HT 1-0 Genoa Genoa İTA
24.10.2020 Genoa Genoa 0-2 HT 0-0 Inter Inter İTA
25.07.2020 Genoa Genoa 0-3 HT 0-1 Inter Inter İTA

Inter 2-1 Genoa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Inter
2-1
AWAY Genoa
1.87 xG 0.84
62% Ball Possession 38%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
555 Passes 305
90% Pass Accuracy 82%
22 Box Touches 26
17 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Inter vs Genoa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Inter edged past Genoa 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Inter as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Inter had 62% of the ball to Genoa's 38%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 1.87 to 0.84.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Inter had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Inter and 0.17 for Genoa.

What was the final score of Inter vs Genoa?

Inter 2-1 Genoa in the Italy - Serie A on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Inter vs Genoa?

Before kick-off our model rated a Inter win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Inter 59%, draw 24%, Genoa 17%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Inter) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Inter) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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