Al Ain 1-0 Al Nassr — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 4 Mar 2024

📅04/03/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.99
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
46%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.18
Over 2.5
51%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.55
No
49%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
4.33
2-3 Goals
38%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.97
6+ Goals
9%
8.96
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.33 — our 29% vs market 18.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.57
1/2
7%
21.85
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
8%
8.12
X/2
16%
4.53
X/X
14%
5.37
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.46
2/X
5%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
30%
-0.3pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.1pp
46%
Away Win
45%
+0.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
42%
+7.1pp
51%
Over 2.5
58%
-7.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.2pp
49%
BTTS No
40%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ain EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Nassr EU Bookmakers 49%
-38% / -38% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.00/1.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.91/0.72
-31% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -41% / +38%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
274 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 382 · 81%
14.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.9
14.5 Crosses 19.0
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ain
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Al Nassr
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.63 xG 0.92
42% Ball Possession 58%
6 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
250 Passes 394
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
12 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
24.09.2020 Al Nassr Al Nassr 0-1 HT 0-1 Al Ain Al Ain AŞMP
18.02.2020 Al Ain Al Ain 1-2 HT 1-0 Al Nassr Al Nassr AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ain
1-0
AWAY Al Nassr
1.33 xG 1.12
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
266 Passes 294
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 33
9 Crosses 23
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Al Ain vs Al Nassr
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ain nicked a narrow win over Al Nassr 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Al Nassr at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Al Ain had 46% of the ball to Al Nassr's 54%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 1.33 to 1.12.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Al Ain and 1.00 for Al Nassr.

What was the final score of Al Ain vs Al Nassr?

Al Ain 1-0 Al Nassr in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ain vs Al Nassr?

Before kick-off our model rated an Al Nassr win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Al Ain 29%, draw 25%, Al Nassr 46%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Nassr) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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