Meksika (K) 3-2 Paraguay (K) — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONCACAF - Gold Cup Women's, 4 Mar 2024

Meksika (K)
3-2 HT 1-0
Paraguay (K)
📅04/03/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
CONCACAF - Gold Cup Women's – 2024

Meksika (K) vs Paraguay (K) Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.18
Draw
22%
5.71
Away
17%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.38
Over 2.5
51%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.51
No
56%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.87
2-3 Goals
41%
1.93
4-5 Goals
23%
2.8
6+ Goals
10%
7.57
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.87 — our 26% vs market 15.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
22%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
80%
-18.3pp
22%
Draw
14%
+7.9pp
17%
Away Win
6%
+10.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
36%
+8.0pp
56%
BTTS No
64%
-8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Meksika (K) v Paraguay (K) — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Meksika (K) EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Paraguay (K) EU Bookmakers 9%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
538 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 196 · 70%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

Meksika (K) vs Paraguay (K) Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Meksika (K)
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Paraguay (K)
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
53% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
10 Corners 5
182 Passes 129
59% Pass Accuracy 52%
34 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Meksika (K) Meksika (K) 4-1 HT 2-1 Paraguay (K) Paraguay (K) PANAMK
31.07.2019 Meksika (K) Meksika (K) 1-2 HT 1-2 Paraguay (K) Paraguay (K) PANAMK

Meksika (K) 3-2 Paraguay (K) — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Meksika (K)
3-2
AWAY Paraguay (K)
2.12 xG 1.89
60% Ball Possession 40%
27 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 7
275 Passes 135
71% Pass Accuracy 53%
28 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Meksika (K) vs Paraguay (K)
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Meksika (K) nicked a narrow win over Paraguay (K) 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Meksika (K) as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Meksika (K) had 60% of the ball to Paraguay (K)'s 40%, shots finished 27-11, expected goals 2.12 to 1.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Meksika (K) and 1.50 for Paraguay (K).

What was the final score of Meksika (K) vs Paraguay (K)?

Meksika (K) 3-2 Paraguay (K) in the CONCACAF - Gold Cup Women's on 04/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Meksika (K) vs Paraguay (K)?

Before kick-off our model rated a Meksika (K) win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Meksika (K) 61%, draw 22%, Paraguay (K) 17%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Meksika (K)), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Meksika (K)) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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