Independ. U20 2-3 Cerro Porteno U20 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores U20, 4 Mar 2025

Independ. U20
2-3 HT 0-3
Cerro Porteno U20
📅04/03/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Copa Libertadores U20 – 2025

Independ. U20 vs Cerro Porteno U20 Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.86
Draw
24%
3.64
Away
20%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.21
Over 2.5
51%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.56
No
53%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
50%
+5.5pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.0pp
20%
Away Win
26%
-5.5pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+7.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-7.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
60%
-13.0pp
53%
BTTS No
40%
+13.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Independ. U20 v Cerro Porteno U20 — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independ. U20 EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Porteno U20 EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +14%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -34%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
324 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
– Crosses 4.0
– Yellow Cards 1.0

Independ. U20 vs Cerro Porteno U20 Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independ. U20
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Cerro Porteno U20
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
1.43 xG 0.84
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
326 Passes 306
77% Pass Accuracy 75%
16 Box Touches 13
13 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.07.2023 Independ. U20 1-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Porteno U20 Cerro Porteno U20 LIBER20
02.07.2023 Independ. U20 3-1 HT 2-0 Cerro Porteno U20 Cerro Porteno U20 LIBER20

Independ. U20 2-3 Cerro Porteno U20 — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independ. U20
2-3
AWAY Cerro Porteno U20
0.51 xG 2.06
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 5
371 Passes 157
87% Pass Accuracy 72%
19 Box Touches 13
27 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Independ. U20 vs Cerro Porteno U20
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Porteno U20 nicked a narrow win over Independ. U20 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

This one beat our numbers. Independ. U20 carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Independ. U20 had 63% of the ball to Cerro Porteno U20's 37%, shots finished 14-13, expected goals 0.51 to 2.06 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cerro Porteno U20's control.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Independ. U20 had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Independ. U20 and 0.50 for Cerro Porteno U20.

What was the final score of Independ. U20 vs Cerro Porteno U20?

Independ. U20 2-3 Cerro Porteno U20 in the Copa Libertadores U20 on 04/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independ. U20 vs Cerro Porteno U20?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independ. U20 win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Independ. U20 55%, draw 24%, Cerro Porteno U20 20%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Independ. U20), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Independ. U20) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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