Hamburg 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 4 Mar 2026

Hamburg
0-1 HT 0-0
Bayer Leverkusen
📅04/03/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
43%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.1
Over 2.5
53%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.6
No
41%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.92
2-3 Goals
38%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
2.97
6+ Goals
12%
9.36
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
5.24
1/2 EV+ ✗
9%
22.25
1/X
9%
13.1
X/1
13%
7.58
X/2
15%
4.88
X/X
9%
5.14
2/1
8%
32.5
2/2
19%
2.64
2/X
6%
12.35
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.25 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
28%
+4.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
43%
Away Win
47%
-3.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
44%
+2.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
56%
-2.9pp
59%
BTTS Yes
58%
+0.3pp
41%
BTTS No
42%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hamburg v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 51%
+9% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +10%
1.07/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.30
+1% / +102% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / -2%
43% Ball Possession 57%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
263 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 78%
16.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
14.5 Crosses 16.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.0

Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.08 xG 2.62
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
237 Passes 306
66% Pass Accuracy 71%
23 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
17.02.2018 Hamburg Hamburg 1-2 HT 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
24.09.2017 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 HT 2-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
03.02.2017 Hamburg Hamburg 1-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
10.09.2016 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
13.03.2016 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 HT 1-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL1
17.10.2015 Hamburg Hamburg 0-0 HT 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1

Hamburg 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
0-1
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.24 xG 1.89
37% Ball Possession 63%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 7
249 Passes 476
74% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 36
10 Crosses 21
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen squeezed past Hamburg 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — both teams to score (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Hamburg had 37% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 63%, shots finished 10-14, expected goals 1.24 to 1.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Hamburg and 1.50 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Hamburg 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 04/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 33%, draw 24%, Bayer Leverkusen 43%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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