Wuhan Three Towns 2-3 Cangzhou Mighty Lions — Result, Statistics & Match Review — China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League, 4 Apr 2024

📅04/04/2024 · 🕒14:35 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
21%
3.45
Away
30%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.5
2-3 Goals
43%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.41
6+ Goals
11%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 26% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.5
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
10%
13.8
X/1
16%
4.29
X/2
15%
7.95
X/X
5%
4.95
2/1
9%
23.6
2/2
9%
5.91
2/X
5%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
50%
-0.4pp
21%
Draw
26%
-5.1pp
30%
Away Win
24%
+5.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-4.8pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wuhan Three Towns EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Cangzhou Mighty Lions EU Bookmakers 28%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.56/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.40
-11% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -23%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
337 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
23.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
16.5 Crosses 13.1
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wuhan Three Towns
2W-0D-2L
AWAY Cangzhou Mighty Lions
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.67 xG 0.87
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
448 Passes 312
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
27 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
15.09.2023 Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns 2-0 HT 2-0 Cangzhou Mighty Lions Cangzhou Mighty Lions ÇİN
27.05.2023 Cangzhou Mighty Lions Cangzhou Mighty Lions 2-1 HT 0-1 Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns ÇİN
04.12.2022 Cangzhou Mighty Lions Cangzhou Mighty Lions 0-4 HT 0-2 Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns ÇİNSL
24.09.2022 Wuhan Three Towns Wuhan Three Towns 3-4 HT 1-2 Cangzhou Mighty Lions Cangzhou Mighty Lions ÇİN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wuhan Three Towns
2-3
AWAY Cangzhou Mighty Lions
2.01 xG 1.32
72% Ball Possession 28%
23 Total Shots 10
10 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 2
554 Passes 172
88% Pass Accuracy 67%
28 Box Touches 15
57 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wuhan Three Towns vs Cangzhou Mighty Lions
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cangzhou Mighty Lions nicked a narrow win over Wuhan Three Towns 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Wuhan Three Towns at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Wuhan Three Towns had 72% of the ball to Cangzhou Mighty Lions's 28%, shots finished 23-10, expected goals 2.01 to 1.32 — the balance of chances actually favoured Wuhan Three Towns.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.50 for Cangzhou Mighty Lions.

What was the final score of Wuhan Three Towns vs Cangzhou Mighty Lions?

Wuhan Three Towns 2-3 Cangzhou Mighty Lions in the China Halk Cumhuriyeti - Super League on 04/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wuhan Three Towns vs Cangzhou Mighty Lions?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wuhan Three Towns win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Wuhan Three Towns 50%, draw 21%, Cangzhou Mighty Lions 30%. The final score 2-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Wuhan Three Towns) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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