Chelsea 4-3 Manchester United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 4 Apr 2024

Chelsea
4-3 HT 2-2
Manchester United
📅04/04/2024 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Chelsea vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.8
Away
22%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.63
Over 2.5
58%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.43
No
42%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.27
2-3 Goals
37%
2.1
4-5 Goals
28%
2.54
6+ Goals
14%
5.47
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.26
1/2
8%
33.5
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
20%
4.65
X/2
9%
8.75
X/X
13%
6.49
2/1
9%
19.6
2/2
5%
5.37
2/X
8%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
52%
-1.7pp
27%
Draw
23%
+4.2pp
22%
Away Win
25%
-2.5pp
42%
Under 2.5
34%
+7.8pp
58%
Over 2.5
66%
-7.8pp
58%
BTTS Yes
66%
-7.8pp
42%
BTTS No
34%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Chelsea v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelsea EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Manchester United EU Bookmakers 29%
-4% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -17%
1.77/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/2.17
-21% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -20%
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 329 · 78%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
19.5 Crosses 12.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6

Chelsea vs Manchester United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelsea
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Manchester United
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.71 xG 2.01
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
487 Passes 323
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
30 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
06.12.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 2-1 HT 1-1 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
25.05.2023 Manchester United Manchester United 4-1 HT 2-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
22.10.2022 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
28.04.2022 Manchester United Manchester United 1-1 HT 0-0 Chelsea Chelsea İNP
28.11.2021 Chelsea Chelsea 1-1 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP
28.02.2021 Chelsea Chelsea 0-0 HT 0-0 Manchester United Manchester United İNP

Chelsea 4-3 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chelsea
4-3
AWAY Manchester United
3.02 xG 1.47
57% Ball Possession 43%
28 Total Shots 19
10 Shots on Target 5
12 Corners 3
470 Passes 341
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
42 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Chelsea vs Manchester United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea edged past Manchester United 4-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%), both teams to score (58%) came in.

On the day, Chelsea had 57% of the ball to Manchester United's 43%, shots finished 28-19, expected goals 3.02 to 1.47 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Chelsea's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester United led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Chelsea and 1.50 for Manchester United.

What was the final score of Chelsea vs Manchester United?

Chelsea 4-3 Manchester United in the England - Premier League on 04/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelsea vs Manchester United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Chelsea 51%, draw 27%, Manchester United 22%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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İNP More England - Premier League
4 Apr 2024
21:30 Liverpool vs Sheffield United Analysis →