FC Akhmat Grozny 0-1 FK Orenburg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Russia - Super Cup, 4 Apr 2024

📅04/04/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
31%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.75
Over 2.5
44%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.99
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.89
6+ Goals
8%
17.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 31% vs market 27.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
11%
1/X
11%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
48%
-5.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.1pp
31%
Away Win
25%
+6.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
53%
+2.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
47%
-2.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.4pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY FK Orenburg EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
322 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
3W-1D-2L
AWAY FK Orenburg
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.89 xG 1.19
43% Ball Possession 57%
16 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
210 Passes 316
69% Pass Accuracy 77%
33 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.11.2023 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
20.08.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 4-0 HT 3-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
04.03.2023 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 3-1 HT 2-1 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUS
19.10.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 4-2 HT 3-2 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUK
09.10.2022 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg 2-1 HT 0-1 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny RUS
31.08.2022 FC Akhmat Grozny FC Akhmat Grozny 3-1 HT 2-0 FK Orenburg FK Orenburg RUK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Akhmat Grozny
0-1
AWAY FK Orenburg
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Akhmat Grozny vs FK Orenburg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FK Orenburg squeezed past FC Akhmat Grozny 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was FC Akhmat Grozny at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, FC Akhmat Grozny had 51% of the ball to FK Orenburg's 49%, shots finished 8-14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Akhmat Grozny had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for FC Akhmat Grozny and 1.50 for FK Orenburg.

What was the final score of FC Akhmat Grozny vs FK Orenburg?

FC Akhmat Grozny 0-1 FK Orenburg in the Russia - Super Cup on 04/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Akhmat Grozny vs FK Orenburg?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Akhmat Grozny win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split FC Akhmat Grozny 43%, draw 25%, FK Orenburg 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Akhmat Grozny) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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