Başakşehir FK 1-1 Beşiktaş — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 4 Apr 2024

Başakşehir FK
1-1 HT 0-1
Beşiktaş
📅04/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2023/2024

Başakşehir FK vs Beşiktaş Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
31%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.9
Over 2.5
48%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.68
No
54%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
21%
3.53
6+ Goals
10%
13.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.35 — our 30% vs market 24.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.8
1/2
9%
28.5
1/X
10%
12.7
X/1
12%
5.69
X/2
11%
5.54
X/X
8%
4.51
2/1
10%
29.0
2/2
11%
3.66
2/X
6%
12.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
36%
+8.5pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.9pp
31%
Away Win
36%
-4.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
49%
+3.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
51%
-3.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
56%
-9.2pp
54%
BTTS No
44%
+9.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Başakşehir FK v Beşiktaş — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Beşiktaş EU Bookmakers 40%
+8% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +12%
1.43/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.42/1.29
-2% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / -4%
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
282 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 431 · 83%
19.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
19.7 Crosses 19.3
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3

Başakşehir FK vs Beşiktaş Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Başakşehir FK
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Beşiktaş
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.02 xG 1.83
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
341 Passes 385
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 1-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
12.03.2023 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 0-2 HT 0-1 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
12.09.2022 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 0-1 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
07.03.2022 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 2-2 HT 1-2 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
15.10.2021 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 3-2 HT 1-0 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş TSL
16.03.2021 Beşiktaş Beşiktaş 3-2 HT 2-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TÜK

Başakşehir FK 1-1 Beşiktaş — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Başakşehir FK
1-1
AWAY Beşiktaş
70% Ball Possession 30%
19 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
495 Passes 169
89% Pass Accuracy 72%
POST-MATCH Başakşehir FK vs Beşiktaş
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Başakşehir FK and Beşiktaş couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Başakşehir FK at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Başakşehir FK had 70% of the ball to Beşiktaş's 30%, shots finished 19-7.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Beşiktaş led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Başakşehir FK and 1.67 for Beşiktaş.

What was the final score of Başakşehir FK vs Beşiktaş?

Başakşehir FK 1-1 Beşiktaş in the Turkey - Super League on 04/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Başakşehir FK vs Beşiktaş?

Before kick-off our model rated a Başakşehir FK win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Başakşehir FK 45%, draw 24%, Beşiktaş 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Başakşehir FK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Başakşehir FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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