FH Hafnarfjordur 3-2 Vestri — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - Urvalsdeild, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
21%
4.08
Away
27%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.38
Over 2.5
55%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.63
No
49%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-9.7pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.2pp
27%
Away Win
18%
+9.5pp
45%
Under 2.5
38%
+7.0pp
55%
Over 2.5
62%
-7.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
57%
-6.5pp
49%
BTTS No
43%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FH Hafnarfjordur EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Vestri EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
2.02/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/0.93
+0% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +116%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 71%
30.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.5
28.6 Crosses 16.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FH Hafnarfjordur
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Vestri
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
62% Ball Possession 38%
7 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 2
14 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 3
17.02.2024 Vestri Vestri 0-1 HT 0-1 FH Hafnarfjordur FH Hafnarfjordur İZLK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FH Hafnarfjordur
3-2
AWAY Vestri
2.46 xG 0.91
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
282 Passes 200
69% Pass Accuracy 61%
32 Box Touches 11
24 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FH Hafnarfjordur vs Vestri
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FH Hafnarfjordur squeezed past Vestri 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had FH Hafnarfjordur as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, FH Hafnarfjordur had 56% of the ball to Vestri's 44%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 2.46 to 0.91 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold FH Hafnarfjordur's control.

What was the final score of FH Hafnarfjordur vs Vestri?

FH Hafnarfjordur 3-2 Vestri in the Iceland - Urvalsdeild on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FH Hafnarfjordur vs Vestri?

Before kick-off our model rated a FH Hafnarfjordur win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split FH Hafnarfjordur 52%, draw 22%, Vestri 27%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (FH Hafnarfjordur), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (FH Hafnarfjordur) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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