Fluminense 2-2 Atletico Mineiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.17
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
37%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.64
Over 2.5
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.9
No
51%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.47
6+ Goals
10%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
5.35
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
9%
14.35
X/1
12%
6.72
X/2
16%
4.45
X/X
13%
4.06
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
15%
2.99
2/X
6%
13.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
28%
+6.3pp
29%
Draw
28%
+0.5pp
37%
Away Win
44%
-6.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.2pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Mineiro EU Bookmakers 48%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
1.11/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.09
-9% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +30%
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
276 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 83%
16.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
16.7 Crosses 18.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.73 xG 1.40
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
359 Passes 330
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
11 Box Touches 22
12 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
29.10.2023 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
22.06.2023 Fluminense Fluminense 1-1 HT 1-1 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
01.10.2022 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
09.06.2022 Fluminense Fluminense 5-3 HT 3-2 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro BR1
28.11.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 2-1 HT 1-1 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
16.09.2021 Atletico Mineiro Atletico Mineiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Fluminense Fluminense BRK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
2-2
AWAY Atletico Mineiro
1.81 xG 1.28
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 11
260 Passes 361
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
7 Box Touches 27
4 Crosses 29
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Atletico Mineiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense and Atletico Mineiro shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 29% / 37% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Fluminense had 43% of the ball to Atletico Mineiro's 57%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 1.81 to 1.28.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Atletico Mineiro led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fluminense and 1.83 for Atletico Mineiro.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Atletico Mineiro?

Fluminense 2-2 Atletico Mineiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Atletico Mineiro?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Mineiro win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 34%, draw 29%, Atletico Mineiro 37%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Mineiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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