Valmiera II 3-2 Progress / AFA Olaine — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.57
Draw
24%
4.08
Away
20%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.38
Over 2.5
48%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.61
No
52%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
39%
1/2
3%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
6%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
60%
-3.6pp
24%
Draw
21%
+2.4pp
20%
Away Win
19%
+1.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
38%
+14.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
62%
-14.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-10.0pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+10.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valmiera II EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 22%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.26/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/2.33
-43% / +146% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -13%
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
422 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 354 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valmiera II
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Progress / AFA Olaine
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
28.10.2023 Valmiera II Valmiera II 1-1 HT 1-0 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine LET1
08.07.2023 Progress / AFA Olaine Progress / AFA Olaine 1-4 Valmiera II Valmiera II LET1
POST-MATCH Valmiera II vs Progress / AFA Olaine
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valmiera II edged past Progress / AFA Olaine 3-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Valmiera II as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Valmiera II had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Valmiera II and 1.00 for Progress / AFA Olaine.

What was the final score of Valmiera II vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Valmiera II 3-2 Progress / AFA Olaine in the Latvia - 1st Division on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valmiera II vs Progress / AFA Olaine?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valmiera II win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Valmiera II 56%, draw 24%, Progress / AFA Olaine 20%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valmiera II) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valmiera II) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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