Texoma 3-4 Charlotte Independence — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 4 May 2025

📅04/05/2025 · 🕒03:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
3.75
Draw
27%
4.19
Away
48%
1.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
1.95
Over 2.5
62%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
64%
1.85
No
36%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
37%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
24%
X/X
15%
2/1
2%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
23%
+2.3pp
27%
Draw
20%
+6.6pp
48%
Away Win
57%
-8.9pp
38%
Under 2.5
48%
-10.0pp
62%
Over 2.5
52%
+10.0pp
64%
BTTS Yes
50%
+14.1pp
36%
BTTS No
50%
-14.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Texoma EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlotte Independence EU Bookmakers 62%
-40% / -40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-61% / -52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 7
336 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 343 · 79%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
16.5 Crosses
4.5 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Texoma
3-4
AWAY Charlotte Independence
1.05 xG 3.06
44% Ball Possession 56%
11 Total Shots 20
8 Shots on Target 8
0 Corners 5
255 Passes 352
73% Pass Accuracy 80%
11 Box Touches 28
12 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Texoma vs Charlotte Independence
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Charlotte Independence nicked a narrow win over Texoma 4-3 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Charlotte Independence as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Texoma had 44% of the ball to Charlotte Independence's 56%, shots finished 11-20, expected goals 1.05 to 3.06 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Charlotte Independence's control.

What was the final score of Texoma vs Charlotte Independence?

Texoma 3-4 Charlotte Independence in the USA - USL League 1 on 04/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Texoma vs Charlotte Independence?

Before kick-off our model rated an Charlotte Independence win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Texoma 25%, draw 27%, Charlotte Independence 48%. The final score 3-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Charlotte Independence), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Charlotte Independence) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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