Al Najma 1-3 Muharraq — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bahrain - Premier League, 4 May 2026

📅04/05/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
16%
5.4
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
58%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.07
Over 2.5
44%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.63
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
3.01
6+ Goals
7%
9.96
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 32% vs market 20.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
7%
X/2
19%
X/X
14%
2/1
3%
2/2
33%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
16%
Home Win
15%
+0.2pp
27%
Draw
21%
+5.9pp
58%
Away Win
64%
-6.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
44%
+12.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
56%
-12.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.7pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Najma EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Muharraq EU Bookmakers 69%
+5% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +18%
1.01/1.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/0.50
+22% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +67%
40% Ball Possession 60%
7 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
203 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Najma
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Muharraq
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
28.12.2025 Muharraq Muharraq 2-0 HT 1-0 Al Najma Al Najma BAH
21.04.2025 Muharraq Muharraq 2-0 HT 1-0 Al Najma Al Najma BAH
26.10.2024 Al Najma Al Najma 0-0 HT 0-0 Muharraq Muharraq BAH
14.05.2024 Al Najma Al Najma 1-1 HT 0-0 Muharraq Muharraq BAH
24.12.2023 Muharraq Muharraq 2-1 HT 1-1 Al Najma Al Najma BAH
26.02.2022 Muharraq Muharraq 1-0 HT 0-0 Al Najma Al Najma BAH
POST-MATCH Al Najma vs Muharraq
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Muharraq beat Al Najma 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Muharraq as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Muharraq led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Al Najma and 1.33 for Muharraq.

What was the final score of Al Najma vs Muharraq?

Al Najma 1-3 Muharraq in the Bahrain - Premier League on 04/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Najma vs Muharraq?

Before kick-off our model rated an Muharraq win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Al Najma 16%, draw 27%, Muharraq 58%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Muharraq) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Muharraq) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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4 May 2026
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