Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uruguay - Premier League, 4 Jun 2024

📅04/06/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.75
No
53%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
16%
2/1
9%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
41%
-3.5pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+4.8pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.5pp
53%
BTTS No
47%
+6.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progreso EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Largo EU Bookmakers 34%
+10% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +3%
1.47/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.17
+21% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +1%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
338 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 334 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Progreso
0W-1D-4L
AWAY Cerro Largo
0.20 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.10.2021 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
19.06.2021 Progreso Progreso 0-0 HT 0-0 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
15.03.2021 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 1-0 HT 0-0 Progreso Progreso URU
12.09.2020 Progreso Progreso 1-2 HT 1-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
21.11.2019 Progreso Progreso 0-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Largo Cerro Largo URU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Progreso
0-1
AWAY Cerro Largo
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Progreso vs Cerro Largo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cerro Largo squeezed past Progreso 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Cerro Largo made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Progreso had 50% of the ball to Cerro Largo's 50%, shots finished 14-9.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Cerro Largo led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.20 goals for Progreso and 1.00 for Cerro Largo.

What was the final score of Progreso vs Cerro Largo?

Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo in the Uruguay - Premier League on 04/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progreso vs Cerro Largo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Progreso win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Progreso 37%, draw 27%, Cerro Largo 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Progreso) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Progreso) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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