Al Ahly 4-1 El Daklyeh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 4 Jul 2024

📅04/07/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.16
Draw
23%
6.26
Away
15%
12.05
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.59
Over 2.5
50%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
37%
2.51
No
63%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
5.49
2-3 Goals
38%
2.0
4-5 Goals
22%
2.66
6+ Goals
12%
6.47
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.49 — our 28% vs market 13.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
4%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
4%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
82%
-19.4pp
23%
Draw
13%
+10.5pp
14%
Away Win
6%
+8.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
35%
+15.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
65%
-15.5pp
37%
BTTS Yes
36%
+1.7pp
63%
BTTS No
64%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 87%
Head to Head
AWAY El Daklyeh EU Bookmakers 8%
-2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +2%
1.74/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.61/1.37
-4% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / +43%
63% Ball Possession 37%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 3
450 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 223 · 71%
26.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 8.3
19.6 Crosses 8.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahly
2W-2D-1L
AWAY El Daklyeh
1.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
2.08 xG 1.08
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
432 Passes 236
82% Pass Accuracy 68%
32 Box Touches 10
19 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.06.2024 Al Ahly Al Ahly 1-2 HT 1-1 El Daklyeh El Daklyeh MSR
04.12.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 0-0 HT 0-0 El Daklyeh El Daklyeh MSR
30.07.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 2-0 El Daklyeh El Daklyeh MSRK
28.02.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 1-1 HT 0-0 El Daklyeh El Daklyeh MSR
02.11.2022 El Daklyeh El Daklyeh 1-4 HT 1-2 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahly
4-1
AWAY El Daklyeh
3.95 xG 0.45
66% Ball Possession 34%
31 Total Shots 3
10 Shots on Target 1
11 Corners 2
458 Passes 196
86% Pass Accuracy 73%
44 Box Touches 10
18 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Ahly vs El Daklyeh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahly swept aside El Daklyeh 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Al Ahly as the likeliest winner at 62%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (63%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Al Ahly had 66% of the ball to El Daklyeh's 34%, shots finished 31-3, expected goals 3.95 to 0.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Al Ahly had the better of it with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.60 goals for Al Ahly and 0.80 for El Daklyeh.

What was the final score of Al Ahly vs El Daklyeh?

Al Ahly 4-1 El Daklyeh in the Egypt - Premier League on 04/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahly vs El Daklyeh?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Al Ahly 62%, draw 23%, El Daklyeh 14%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahly) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
MSR More Egypt - Premier League
4 Jul 2024
19:00 El Geish vs Sakandary Analysis →