Naft Al-Basra 4-3 Erbil — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iraq - Premier League, 4 Jul 2025

📅04/07/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
22%
3.11
Away
38%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.78
Over 2.5
43%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.9
No
61%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
4%
2/2
25%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
36%
+4.7pp
22%
Draw
29%
-7.0pp
38%
Away Win
36%
+2.2pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.4pp
39%
BTTS Yes
49%
-9.3pp
61%
BTTS No
51%
+9.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naft Al-Basra EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Erbil EU Bookmakers 39%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
0.60/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/0.46
-46% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / +142%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
286 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
POST-MATCH Naft Al-Basra vs Erbil
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naft Al-Basra edged past Erbil 4-3. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (41% / 22% / 38%) promised a tight game; Naft Al-Basra found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Naft Al-Basra vs Erbil?

Naft Al-Basra 4-3 Erbil in the Iraq - Premier League on 04/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naft Al-Basra vs Erbil?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naft Al-Basra win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Naft Al-Basra 41%, draw 22%, Erbil 38%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naft Al-Basra) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Naft Al-Basra) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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