Esbjerg 0-1 AC Horsens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 4 Aug 2024

Esbjerg
0-1 HT 0-1
AC Horsens
📅04/08/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Denmark 1st Division – 2024/2025

Esbjerg vs AC Horsens Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.18
Draw
33%
3.54
Away
34%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.23
Over 2.5
47%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.5
No
51%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
4.57
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.88
6+ Goals
9%
8.24
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.57 — our 27% vs market 17.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
3.07
1/2
6%
27.5
1/X
10%
12.85
X/1
16%
5.24
X/2
10%
6.34
X/X
16%
5.5
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
18%
4.0
2/X
7%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
42%
-9.3pp
33%
Draw
25%
+8.0pp
34%
Away Win
33%
+1.3pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.7pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
62%
-13.0pp
51%
BTTS No
38%
+13.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Esbjerg v AC Horsens — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY AC Horsens EU Bookmakers 37%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.89/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.27
+26% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +52%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
293 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 76%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.9
18.8 Crosses 17.6
1.6 Yellow Cards 0.8

Esbjerg vs AC Horsens Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Esbjerg
0W-5D-1L
AWAY AC Horsens
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.60 xG 1.44
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
262 Passes 279
70% Pass Accuracy 70%
21 Box Touches 26
20 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
17.02.2024 AC Horsens AC Horsens 0-0 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg HAZ
13.03.2022 AC Horsens AC Horsens 0-0 HT 0-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
13.08.2021 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-0 HT 0-0 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN1
03.07.2020 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-2 HT 1-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN
16.06.2020 AC Horsens AC Horsens 2-2 HT 1-1 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN
01.11.2019 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-1 HT 1-1 AC Horsens AC Horsens DAN

Esbjerg 0-1 AC Horsens — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Esbjerg
0-1
AWAY AC Horsens
0.43 xG 0.27
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
352 Passes 333
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
33 Box Touches 13
25 Crosses 12
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Esbjerg vs AC Horsens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AC Horsens edged past Esbjerg 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 33% / 34% — and on the day AC Horsens made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Esbjerg had 52% of the ball to AC Horsens's 48%, shots finished 10-7, expected goals 0.43 to 0.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, AC Horsens led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Esbjerg and 0.83 for AC Horsens.

What was the final score of Esbjerg vs AC Horsens?

Esbjerg 0-1 AC Horsens in the Denmark 1st Division on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Esbjerg vs AC Horsens?

Before kick-off our model rated an AC Horsens win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Esbjerg 33%, draw 33%, AC Horsens 34%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AC Horsens), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AC Horsens) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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