Progress / AFA Olaine 3-1 Leevon / PPK — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - 1st Division, 4 Aug 2024

Progress / AFA Olaine
3-1
Leevon / PPK
📅04/08/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-4 ✗
Latvia - 1st Division – 2024

Progress / AFA Olaine vs Leevon / PPK Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
4.13
Draw
13%
4.62
Away
70%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.59
Over 2.5
61%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.6
No
54%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
27%
6+ Goals
16%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
14%
1/X
4%
X/1
4%
X/2
22%
X/X
4%
2/1
4%
2/2
33%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
20%
-3.4pp
13%
Draw
18%
-4.4pp
70%
Away Win
62%
+7.8pp
39%
Under 2.5
35%
+4.4pp
61%
Over 2.5
65%
-4.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
58%
-12.5pp
54%
BTTS No
42%
+12.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Progress / AFA Olaine v Leevon / PPK — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Progress / AFA Olaine EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Leevon / PPK EU Bookmakers 67%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +32% / +32%
1.71/2.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/0.00
+115% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -52% / –
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
298 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 422 · 82%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –
POST-MATCH Progress / AFA Olaine vs Leevon / PPK
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Progress / AFA Olaine got the better of Leevon / PPK 3-1.

This one beat our numbers. Leevon / PPK carried 70% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

What was the final score of Progress / AFA Olaine vs Leevon / PPK?

Progress / AFA Olaine 3-1 Leevon / PPK in the Latvia - 1st Division on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Progress / AFA Olaine vs Leevon / PPK?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leevon / PPK win the most likely single outcome at about 70%, with the full match-result split Progress / AFA Olaine 17%, draw 13%, Leevon / PPK 70%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Leevon / PPK), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leevon / PPK) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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