Al Ahly 4-0 Al Mokawloon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Egypt - Premier League, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.32
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
18%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.9
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.16
6+ Goals
10%
10.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.9 — our 27% vs market 20.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
16%
2/1
11%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
71%
-14.0pp
25%
Draw
18%
+7.0pp
18%
Away Win
11%
+7.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.6pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.0pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahly EU Bookmakers 76%
Head to Head
AWAY Al Mokawloon EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -3%
1.75/0.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/1.22
+20% / +16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +30% / +6%
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
409 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 70%
27.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
19.0 Crosses 13.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahly
4W-2D-0L
AWAY Al Mokawloon
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.61 xG 0.89
64% Ball Possession 36%
15 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
433 Passes 205
80% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 10
21 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.11.2023 Al Mokawloon Al Mokawloon 1-2 HT 0-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
16.07.2023 Al Mokawloon Al Mokawloon 1-4 HT 1-1 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
07.03.2023 Al Ahly Al Ahly 2-1 HT 2-1 Al Mokawloon Al Mokawloon MSR
27.11.2022 Al Ahly Al Ahly 1-1 HT 0-0 Al Mokawloon Al Mokawloon MSRK
30.07.2022 Al Mokawloon Al Mokawloon 0-0 HT 0-0 Al Ahly Al Ahly MSR
19.11.2021 Al Ahly Al Ahly 1-0 HT 0-0 Al Mokawloon Al Mokawloon MSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahly
4-0
AWAY Al Mokawloon
1.10 xG 0.00
65% Ball Possession 35%
16 Total Shots 0
6 Shots on Target 0
6 Corners 2
475 Passes 217
86% Pass Accuracy 72%
22 Box Touches 7
14 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Al Ahly vs Al Mokawloon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahly swept aside Al Mokawloon 4-0. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Al Ahly as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Al Ahly had 65% of the ball to Al Mokawloon's 35%, shots finished 16-0, expected goals 1.10 to 0.00.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Al Ahly had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Al Ahly and 0.67 for Al Mokawloon.

What was the final score of Al Ahly vs Al Mokawloon?

Al Ahly 4-0 Al Mokawloon in the Egypt - Premier League on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahly vs Al Mokawloon?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahly win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Al Ahly 57%, draw 25%, Al Mokawloon 18%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahly), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahly) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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