Charlotte Independence 3-3 Lexington — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - USL League 1, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.72
Away
26%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.07
Over 2.5
50%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.7
No
54%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
14%
2/1
4%
2/2
13%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
56%
-7.7pp
26%
Draw
23%
+2.8pp
26%
Away Win
21%
+4.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
55%
-9.0pp
54%
BTTS No
45%
+9.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Charlotte Independence EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Lexington EU Bookmakers 24%
+9% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
1.71/1.54 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.95
+61% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -24%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
367 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.5
16.5 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Charlotte Independence
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Lexington
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.63 xG 1.92
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
348 Passes 376
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
19 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.09.2023 Lexington Lexington 2-2 HT 0-1 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence USL1
10.07.2023 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence 2-1 HT 1-1 Lexington Lexington USL1
14.05.2023 Lexington Lexington 1-0 HT 0-0 Charlotte Independence Charlotte Independence USL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Charlotte Independence
3-3
AWAY Lexington
2.08 xG 2.50
62% Ball Possession 38%
19 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 9
460 Passes 262
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
46 Box Touches 21
25 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Charlotte Independence vs Lexington
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Charlotte Independence and Lexington couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Charlotte Independence at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Charlotte Independence had 62% of the ball to Lexington's 38%, shots finished 19-16, expected goals 2.08 to 2.50.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Charlotte Independence and 1.33 for Lexington.

What was the final score of Charlotte Independence vs Lexington?

Charlotte Independence 3-3 Lexington in the USA - USL League 1 on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Charlotte Independence vs Lexington?

Before kick-off our model rated a Charlotte Independence win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Charlotte Independence 48%, draw 26%, Lexington 26%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Charlotte Independence) ✗ BTTS No
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