Marathon 1-0 Independiente — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 4 Aug 2026

Marathon
1-0 HT 1-0
Independiente
📅04/08/2026 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Honduras - National League Apertura – 2026/2027

Marathon vs Independiente Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.37
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
16%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
2.33
No
47%
1.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
5%
X/X
11%
2/1
12%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
68%
-11.0pp
26%
Draw
21%
+5.8pp
16%
Away Win
11%
+5.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
39%
+14.2pp
47%
BTTS No
61%
-14.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Marathon v Independiente — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marathon EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente EU Bookmakers 14%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-4% / +33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
363 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.9 Yellow Cards –
FAQ Marathon vs Independiente
Match summary & frequently asked questions

Marathon edged past Independiente 1-0 in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 4 Aug 2026.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

What was the final score of Marathon vs Independiente?

Marathon 1-0 Independiente in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 04/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marathon vs Independiente?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marathon win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Marathon 58%, draw 26%, Independiente 16%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Marathon) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Marathon) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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