Hellas Verona vs Venezia Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Hellas Verona v Venezia — Team-Based Signals
Hellas Verona vs Venezia Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-1
HT 0-0
Venezia
İTA
3-4
HT 3-0
Hellas Verona
İTA
3-3
HT 1-0
Venezia
İTK
1-0
HT 1-0
Venezia
İTB
1-1
HT 0-1
Hellas Verona
İTB
1-0
HT 0-0
Venezia
İTB
Hellas Verona 2-1 Venezia — Actual Match Statistics
Hellas Verona edged past Venezia 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
As we said in the preview, our model had Hellas Verona as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Hellas Verona had 50% of the ball to Venezia's 50%, shots finished 20-14, expected goals 2.40 to 0.90 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Hellas Verona's control.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hellas Verona had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Hellas Verona and 1.33 for Venezia.
What was the final score of Hellas Verona vs Venezia?
Hellas Verona 2-1 Venezia in the Italy - Serie A on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Hellas Verona vs Venezia?
Before kick-off our model rated a Hellas Verona win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Hellas Verona 45%, draw 26%, Venezia 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hellas Verona) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.