Naestved 1-0 Nykobing — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - 2nd Division, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.37
Draw
21%
4.49
Away
18%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.07
Over 2.5
60%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.86
2-3 Goals
37%
1.83
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
29%
3.18
6+ Goals
13%
10.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.18 — our 29% vs market 25.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
5%
X/X
10%
2/1
10%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
68%
-7.3pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.4pp
18%
Away Win
13%
+5.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
44%
-4.6pp
60%
Over 2.5
56%
+4.6pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.9pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naestved EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Nykobing EU Bookmakers 16%
-18% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
1.56/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.39/3.41
-31% / -41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / -39%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
381 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 0.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Naestved
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Nykobing
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.57 xG 0.44
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
294 Passes 261
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 14
16 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2022 Nykobing Nykobing 1-1 HT 0-0 Naestved Naestved DAN1
21.08.2022 Naestved Naestved 3-0 HT 2-0 Nykobing Nykobing DAN1
24.05.2021 Naestved Naestved 1-1 HT 1-0 Nykobing Nykobing DAN2
01.11.2020 Nykobing Nykobing 3-2 HT 0-1 Naestved Naestved DAN2
21.06.2020 Nykobing Nykobing 2-1 HT 2-0 Naestved Naestved DAN1
08.03.2020 Naestved Naestved 0-0 HT 0-0 Nykobing Nykobing DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naestved
1-0
AWAY Nykobing
67% Ball Possession 33%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Naestved vs Nykobing
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Naestved edged past Nykobing 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Naestved as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Naestved had 67% of the ball to Nykobing's 33%, shots finished 12-11.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nykobing led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Naestved and 1.17 for Nykobing.

What was the final score of Naestved vs Nykobing?

Naestved 1-0 Nykobing in the Denmark - 2nd Division on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naestved vs Nykobing?

Before kick-off our model rated a Naestved win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Naestved 61%, draw 21%, Nykobing 18%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Naestved), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Naestved) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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