Marsilya 1-1 Angers — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 4 Oct 2024

Marsilya
1-1 HT 0-0
Angers
📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Marsilya vs Angers Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home Pick
62%
1.3
Draw
22%
4.81
Away
16%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under
48%
2.29
Over
52%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 ✗
26%
4.69
2-3
38%
1.91
4-5
25%
2.85
6+
11%
7.94
Value flag · 0-1 at 4.69 — our 26% vs market 16.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1.5
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
22.7
X/1
18%
3.46
X/2
6%
19.95
X/X
13%
7.69
2/1
12%
22.7
2/2
5%
15.75
2/X
4%
22.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Marsilya win — 62% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
72%
-10.4pp
22%
Draw
17%
+5.0pp
16%
Away Win
10%
+5.4pp
48%
Under 2.5
40%
+8.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
60%
-8.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.1pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Marsilya v Angers — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marsilya EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Angers EU Bookmakers 14%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -8%
2.13/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.74
-7% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -20% / -9%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
483 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 78%
29.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
21.3 Crosses 13.3
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.8

Marsilya vs Angers Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marsilya
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Angers
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.97 xG 0.79
60% Ball Possession 40%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
497 Passes 312
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 12
16 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.05.2023 Marsilya Marsilya 3-1 HT 1-1 Angers Angers FR1
30.09.2022 Angers Angers 0-3 HT 0-1 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
04.02.2022 Marsilya Marsilya 5-2 HT 2-2 Angers Angers FR1
22.09.2021 Angers Angers 0-0 HT 0-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1
16.05.2021 Marsilya Marsilya 3-2 HT 1-0 Angers Angers FR1
23.12.2020 Angers Angers 2-1 HT 2-0 Marsilya Marsilya FR1

Marsilya 1-1 Angers — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Marsilya
1-1
AWAY Angers
0.89 xG 0.83
76% Ball Possession 24%
16 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 3
681 Passes 185
93% Pass Accuracy 83%
31 Box Touches 11
23 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Marsilya vs Angers
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marsilya and Angers couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Marsilya at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Marsilya had 76% of the ball to Angers's 24%, shots finished 16-10, expected goals 0.89 to 0.83.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Marsilya had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Marsilya and 1.17 for Angers.

What was the final score of Marsilya vs Angers?

Marsilya 1-1 Angers in the France - Ligue 1 on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marsilya vs Angers?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marsilya win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Marsilya 62%, draw 22%, Angers 16%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Marsilya) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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