Almere City 0-1 Willem II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 4 Oct 2024

Almere City
0-1 HT 0-0
Willem II
📅04/10/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2024/2025

Almere City vs Willem II Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
2.38
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
40%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.64
Over 2.5
48%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.88
No
51%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.62
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.48
6+ Goals
11%
23.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.62
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
13%
5.08
X/2
13%
5.73
X/X
12%
3.95
2/1
5%
31.5
2/2
23%
4.29
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.65
Value flag · 2/X at 13.65 — our 11% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
38%
-7.8pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.3pp
40%
Away Win
32%
+7.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
57%
-4.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
43%
+4.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
49%
-0.4pp
51%
BTTS No
51%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Almere City v Willem II — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Almere City EU Bookmakers 42%
Head to Head
AWAY Willem II EU Bookmakers 36%
+31% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -12%
1.30/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.32
+37% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -5%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
324 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 70%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
16.6 Crosses 18.3
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.0

Almere City vs Willem II Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Almere City
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Willem II
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.15 xG 1.18
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
231 Passes 404
66% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 19
10 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
15.01.2023 Almere City Almere City 1-0 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
21.10.2022 Willem II Willem II 1-1 HT 0-1 Almere City Almere City HOL2
16.05.2016 Willem II Willem II 5-2 HT 1-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2
13.05.2016 Almere City Almere City 0-1 HT 0-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
25.04.2014 Almere City Almere City 1-2 HT 1-0 Willem II Willem II HOL2
08.11.2013 Willem II Willem II 5-0 HT 3-0 Almere City Almere City HOL2

Almere City 0-1 Willem II — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Almere City
0-1
AWAY Willem II
1.70 xG 0.35
51% Ball Possession 49%
23 Total Shots 4
7 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 5
350 Passes 344
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
34 Box Touches 11
25 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Almere City vs Willem II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II edged past Almere City 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 31% / 29% / 40% — and on the day Willem II made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Almere City had 51% of the ball to Willem II's 49%, shots finished 23-4, expected goals 1.70 to 0.35 — the balance of chances actually favoured Almere City.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Willem II led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Almere City and 2.33 for Willem II.

What was the final score of Almere City vs Willem II?

Almere City 0-1 Willem II in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Almere City vs Willem II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Almere City 31%, draw 29%, Willem II 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Willem II), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Willem II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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