Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 Nagoya Grampus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 4 Oct 2024

📅04/10/2024 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
28%
2.83
Away
39%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.44
Over 2.5
42%
2.63
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.19
No
56%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.84
4-5 Goals
19%
6.62
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
4.33
1/2
9%
34.5
1/X
8%
15.05
X/1
15%
5.25
X/2
17%
5.11
X/X
14%
3.28
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
13%
4.18
2/X
6%
15.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-1.4pp
28%
Draw
32%
-3.5pp
39%
Away Win
34%
+5.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
66%
-7.7pp
42%
Over 2.5
34%
+7.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
42%
+2.7pp
56%
BTTS No
58%
-2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avispa Fukuoka EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -9%
0.96/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.24
-30% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +1%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
302 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 81%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
18.4 Crosses 16.5
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.92 xG 1.27
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
288 Passes 328
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 15
18 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
07.04.2024 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-0 HT 0-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
15.10.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-1 HT 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JLK
11.10.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 1-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JLK
16.09.2023 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 HT 0-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
11.06.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka JAP
03.09.2022 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 2-3 HT 1-3 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avispa Fukuoka
1-0
AWAY Nagoya Grampus
0.68 xG 1.39
45% Ball Possession 55%
15 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 4
269 Passes 333
75% Pass Accuracy 76%
20 Box Touches 27
20 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avispa Fukuoka squeezed past Nagoya Grampus 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 33% / 28% / 39% — and on the day Avispa Fukuoka made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Avispa Fukuoka had 45% of the ball to Nagoya Grampus's 55%, shots finished 15-15, expected goals 0.68 to 1.39 — the balance of chances actually favoured Nagoya Grampus.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avispa Fukuoka had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Avispa Fukuoka and 0.83 for Nagoya Grampus.

What was the final score of Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus?

Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 Nagoya Grampus in the Japan - J1 League on 04/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avispa Fukuoka vs Nagoya Grampus?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Avispa Fukuoka 33%, draw 28%, Nagoya Grampus 39%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nagoya Grampus) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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